Rwanda: Has Kagame preempted RPF decision on third term?

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Has Kagame preempted RPF decision on third term?

blogadmin on June 12, 2013 — Leave a Comment

By Mugabe Robert

Kagame visits Musanze

President Paul Kagame while speaking at the Nyakinama Military academy, on Monday, dwelt on the relationship between the Constitution and the will of the people. To many people the massage was not clear since the speech was more about passing out senior officers and responding to President Kikwete's suggestion that Rwanda holds talks with FDLR rebels.

But there is a reason. Debate on the Constitution in Rwanda begun formally in February when the Rwanda Patriotic Front held an extraordinary general assembly to discuss the transition in 2017, members gave their different views.

A few days later, the executive committee met again and appointed a team that includes RPF Secretary General François Ngarambe, Senator Dr. Bizimana Jean Damascene, Senator Tito Rutaremana, Governance Board CEO Prof Shyaka Anastase, Minister for Easter African affairs Monique Mukaruliza and Maureen Wanziga, who works at Prime minister's office. This committee which was given the job of consulting members of the party and come up with a position to be debated by NEC

Now, sources say the team has agreed on third term bid and change of the constitution and mobilizing the media linked to the government to begin talk shows about the third term bid.

In media interviews Kagame is no longer categorical as he used to be, instead he gives messages that what Rwandans want, should prevail. Other times he tells scribes to wait until when the time comes.

The citizen outreach programs which include President Kagame visiting upcountry districts and addressing thousands, are supposed to see citizens demanding that they want Kagame to stay

Inside sources familiar with RPF and Kagame style say James Musoni was given an assignment of citizen outreach but remained redundant for some time because he thought himself as a contender come 2017. It's of late, apparently after the whole plan revealed to him that Musoni realized the whole purpose of Kagame's citizen outreach tours.

An observer familiar with the situation said local leaders have been briefed on the RPF's unpaged open secret. Also how they should orient the public perception from the grass root.

Senator Tito Rutaremara a member of the team had before insisted that his take on bid for third term is in the constitution. "I am apart of team who initiated and advocated for the very principals in the constitution we have today. So you know my opinion about transition," Rutaremara added. Three months after his statement following a whisper from the source that his team has agreed to sell the idea of adopting 3rd term, he vehemently denied having an interview about the issue. To the people familiar with Rutaremara, it's unusual to deny any journalist a right to an interview.

In the Public, Rutaremara has softened his stance on transition and Kagame's bid for third term. Earlier, Rutaremera had said RPF's stand is that Kagame's mandate would go beyond the set time only when there is a crisis that may only hinder elections comes 2017. Tito said in an interview in January 2012 that: "When we have a constitution written by people, debated by people, voted by people and passed by people, in order to change it you have to have a very serious reason," observed Senator Tito, adding that the only think that would call for prolonging President Kagame's stay in office after his current second and last constitution term is if the country was at war and no time to organize elections.

Tito added, "for instance, if we are at a war and we don't have time to go to elections, then we can let him go on. That is one of the reasons". At the time Tito was responding to Internal Affairs minister and head of PDI party Musa Fazil's suggestion that Kagame be given a third term.

The sacking of Tharcisse Karugarama and Protais Musoni has already led to suggestions that it was about putting RPF members in proper line of not publicly opposing the third term. It is unknown if Tito would repeat that position.

The third term issue is not just complicated within the RPF only. Kagame's international friends and allies who stood with him in good and bad times, like Tony Blair who famously defended Rwanda president during DRC-M23 crisis; have made it clear to him that they would not back him if he bids for 3rd term.

The answer to complication is clear, get as many citizens to campaign that they want Kagame to stay, so by the time a referendum is held, it appears like it is a mass movement than coming from top leaders. So, when Kagame talks about the Constitution and the will of the people, the message is clear.

Posted in Mugabe's Blog

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