War and peace in Mali
The battle moves to the mountains
The French may have to stay a bit longer than they wish
Chase them into the hillsWHILE the ancient city of Timbuktu was under the rule of jihadists, a 21-year-old woman with almond-shaped eyes called Mamou Maiga accepted a ride home from a handsome occupier calling himself Adama. "He said I was very special," she murmurs. They were married after he offered her reluctant family a large dowry. But three weeks ago, as French troops could be spied from the city's mud-brick minarets, Adama fled. His bride is distraught, her family relieved. Mamou's younger sister says she hates the jihadists, who for ten months imposed harsh rules, and hopes her fly-by-night brother-in-law will never come back. "Why would you even answer the phone to him?" she asks.
Mamou is unlikely to see Adama again soon, given how decisively French troops chased the Islamists out of the populated parts of northern Mali. Some were struck down from the air as they crossed open desert; the French reckon they have killed several hundred out of an estimated total of 3,000. The rest are hiding in remote mountains near the Algerian border.
France and its Western and African allies are planning the second phase of the month-old intervention. This will try to allay fears that the jihadists, who may still have support in some outlying villages in the north, could trickle back and start a guerrilla war. A standard counter-insurgency strategy would suggest that the French-led forces must protect civilians from attacks, ensure that the new authorities are seen as legitimate, then stick around until the fight is truly won. In essence, keep the peace and rebuild the state.
To achieve this the European Union intends to train Malian troops, while 8,000 soldiers from neighbouring countries, of whom more than half have so far arrived, hold the ring. The French hope that by April an African force will have come under the UN's aegis. Foreign governments will provide cash for development.
The Malians are under Western pressure to hold elections, perhaps in July, to re-establish a legitimate government; since a military coup last April, the country has been run by an awkward mixture of soldiers fronted by civilians. At the same time, political factions across the country are being urged to settle the long-standing conflict between southerners and rebellious northerners, particularly the ethnic Tuareg who have long demanded autonomy if not independence.
Many Malians, however, are opposed to reconciliation with the Tuareg, who make up fewer than 8% of the country's 16m-plus people. They blame them for co-operating with the brutal jihadist occupiers. Malian soldiers moving north have started to wreak revenge on suspected Islamists and Tuareg. Well-intentioned EU trainers are unlikely to persuade Malian troops to change their attitudes overnight; American trainers tried to do so for the past decade, only to see one of their trainees overthrow the government. The troops arriving from neighbouring countries may sow further discord.
The rebels may struggle to get a large-scale guerrilla war going soon. But they have started to plant roadside bombs, which have blown up at least two Malian army vehicles. They may seek to keep up their morale and momentum with "spectaculars", including suicide-bombings and kidnappings. Some home-made bombs were discovered near Gao, now the main French base in the north. Jumpy Malian soldiers have closed off roads and cut off swathes of the country. So far they have done little to restore a sense of normality.
Open desert may not be good terrain for the insurgents since it offers few targets, little local support and no cover. But much of the countryside around Gao and Timbuktu is shrubby farmland—better for guerrillas. The mountains close to the border with Algeria are pocked with caves and have plenty of water.
For now, the French have the initiative. Many Tuareg and some fighters on the fringe of the various jihadist groups say they are prepared to come to an accommodation with the new order. One Tuareg group claims to have detained two fleeing jihadist leaders near the Algerian border.
Meanwhile, the French may have to reconsider their plans to hand over fast to African troops after noting their own popularity with ordinary Malians. Once French convoys carrying food and fuel reach the north, the locals may be even keener for troops to stay a bit longer. This should give them enough political backing to cut a deal between the government and the Tuareg.
Still, at least 2,000 well-armed fighters are hiding in the north. French jets and special forces are pursuing them. Some may drift off across porous borders. Malians seem to hope the rebels will then become someone else's problem.
France would have to keep elite troops in Mali for a long time to defeat these men, who may therefore lie low until the French declare "mission accomplished", perhaps quite soon. Laurent Fabius, the foreign minister, has said that French troops will, if all goes according to plan, start leaving next month. "France doesn't intend to stay in Mali for the long run," he says. "France does not want to stay", says François Heisbourg of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. "The idea that we would provide a long-term stability force of a few thousand soldiers? I just don't see it." The French seem loth to rebuild a nation.
The Malians say that 5,000 African soldiers have already arrived, including 1,800 Chadians in the north-east around Kidal, where the terrain is thought to suit them. Troops from Burkina Faso control a key bridge at Markala and Togolese are in the central town of San. But they seem far from ready to take over the lead from the French.
The 600 French soldiers who took Timbuktu are already leaving, handing over to Malian troops, in order to consolidate around Gao and then tighten their grip on Kidal. The French strategy has been to deploy special forces to capture key towns, then hand them over to Malian or regional African troops to garrison. That should free the French to pursue jihadists north of Kidal, closing in on them from two directions. Ground forces should squeeze them from the south, while the Algerians should keep an eye on them from the north as French aircraft continue to destroy their lines of supply, depriving them of fuel.
The seven French hostages thought to be held in the mountains near the northern border may complicate things. Shehu Abdulkadir, who commands the UN mission to Mali, claims his troops are planning an operation to free them. The French play down such comments, especially since the UN is not yet in charge. President François Hollande said in Bamako on February 2nd that his forces were "very close" to the hostages and told the captors there was "still time to free them". As a purely military operation would be risky, it has been mooted that the Tuareg could be used as a negotiating channel in return for French mediation in their dealings with the Malian government. If that worked, it could be a harbinger for a wider accommodation, bringing at least some of the Tuareg onside, isolating and containing the diehard jihadists in their rugged northern wasteland.
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